(Following is the transcript of the segment "Analysis by Winnie Monsod"
which aired on News on Q on June 15, 2009. Prof. Winnie Monsod is the resident analyst of News on Q, which airs weeknights at 9:30 p.m. on Q Channel 11.)

Let's break that question down into several sub questions, and let's start with, what exactly do we mean by recession?

A recession is a period of temporary economic decline, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters. In other words, the growth rate is negative during those quarters.

The good news, therefore, is that this has not happened, so far anyway, in the Philippines, unlike in Thailand, for example, or Singapore or Hong Kong, where the growth rates have been negative, 6 per cent for Thailand.

The Philippines has not posted a negative growth rate since 1998. That's good news.

The bad news is that the country's most recent growth rate of 0.4 per cent is four tenths of 1 per cent is actually very close to negative, which is the reason National Statistical Coordination Board Secretary-General Romy Virola said that the economy is "teetering" into recession.

So, the next question is, given that we are "teetering" or at the brink of recession, what is the probability that we will actually fall into recession?

Let us see what the historical data tell us about this.

I looked at the quarterly growth rates from the first quarter of 1982 to the first quarter of 2009 - that's a 27-year period - and found out that in 19 out of those 27 years, or more than 70 per cent of the time, the first quarter growth rates were either lower than the annual growth rates in 15 of the 19 or equal to them, 4 of the 19.

So that is good news - because 70 per cent of the time, the country didn't get worse after the first quarter, it either remained the same, or it got better.

The bad news though, comes out when we zero in on the country's recession years.

Four times in the past 27 years the country experienced recession - in 1984, 1985, 1991, and 1998. And in three out of those four recession years, or 75 per cent of the time, the first quarter growth rates were higher than the growth rates for the year. Meaning to say, things got worse after the first quarter. Ouch.

Let's take this one-step further.

Independent forecasts predict that the country would grow at about 2 per cent this year.

So, why then did we grow much slower than expected in the first three months of the year? Well, let's look at the usual suspects.

International trade figures show a very large contraction but then, exports and imports had been contracting since October of last year, so that was already part of the equation, factored in the forecasts.

So, hindi na 'yan kasali.

Was the culprit the remittances from OFWs? The answer is NO.

The forecasters had factored in that these remittances would be reduced, and slow down the economy as a result, but surprise, surprise remittances from overseas Filipinos increased - by 18.9 per cent in dollar terms, and 38.5 per cent in peso terms, thanks in part to a hefty 44.7 per cent rise in deployment in the first quarter, from 254 000 to 368,000 Filipino workers. Credit for that, by the way, must be given to the Arroyo administration, whose efforts in seeking jobs abroad have been unstinting. Let's face it.

Well then if it’s not trade, if it’s not overseas... sirit na.

One identified culprit is the marked slowdown in personal consumption expenditures - which accounts for roughly 80 per cent of GDP.

These expenditures grew by only 0.8 per cent in the first three months of this year, compared to a 5.1 per cent growth last year, a 5.9 per cent growth two years ago.

In fact, the last time it was anywhere near .8 per cent was in the last quarter of 1991, that was 17, 18 years ago, a recession year, when consumption increased by only 1 per cent.

Another identified culprit is more a crime of omission. The sad fact is that not a single centavo of the government's much touted stimulus package, was spent in the first quarter.

Why? Well, Congress didn't pass the budget until mid-January, and the President didn't sign it until mid-March. Tapos na ang quarter.

So, is there hope of averting the recession? Yes! Please, households, don't try to save more at this stage of the game.

Because when individual households try to save more at this time, you might end up saving less because you might lose your jobs.

And please, government, spend that stimulus package in a manner that will end up in the pockets of the people rather than in the pockets of politicians.