(Following is the transcript of the segment "Analysis by Winnie Monsod" which aired on News on Q on November 17, 2010. Prof. Winnie Monsod is the resident analyst of News on Q which airs weeknights at 9:30 p.m. on Q Channel 11.)

The Bus Operators who were involved in that lightning bus strike on Monday should be shown the full force of the law. I agree.

Their perfidy, the deceitfulness that marked that strike, makes their actions even more contemptible. I agree.

But if we think that the so-called Unified Vehicular Volume Reduction Program or UVVRP, also known as the number coding system, will be a major contributor to solving our traffic problems, let us disabuse ourselves.

Let the numbers speak for themselves: “EDSA can physically accommodate up to 1,600 buses. But 3,800 city-franchised buses currently ply EDSA”. This from the MMDA itself, quoting from a study conducted by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).

We have to add to that the number of colorum buses, or those which have no legal franchise to operate. And here, from the MMDA (August 5, 2010), we are talking about another 2,200 buses, because “...at least 6,000 buses pass through Edsa and other major roads every day, a considerable number of which are colorum”.

So, doing the arithmetic, the UVVRP, if implemented successfully, will reduce the amount of buses by 1,200 a day, which still leaves 4,800 buses moving up and down EDSA, still three times EDSA’s carrying capacity.

Now then, let us suppose that the MMDA is 100% successful in its anti-colorum program, meaning to say, it manages to remove the estimated non-franchised buses from the road. That will still leave, with the 20% UVVRP coding, 3,800 minus 20% or 3,140 franchised buses plying the streets, or almost double the capacity of EDSA to carry.

But unfortunately, we cannot assume a 100% successful anti-colorum program – because from the recent experience in August, the MMDA was only able to round up 117 vehicles –which included not only buses but taxis and AUVs – in the first day, another 76 in the second day, and then one or two a day for the next fifteen days in August. After that, there are no more news reports.

And in the meantime, we must expect a sudden surge in the demand for fake license plates.

Given all the foregoing, I think it is safe to say that the UVVRP, as an answer to Metro Manila’s traffic problems, is sadly wanting. It may not be worth the effort of putting out 1,800 enforcers, as MMDA has fielded.

Fortunately, there is a better solution – in the sense that the cost-benefit ratio is much higher, that apparently has the approval and cooperation of the bus operators, and one that MMDA already has in its arsenal.

What is that? I suggest that Chairman or Secretary Tolentino resurrect and put the final touches on the project that his predecessor Bayani Fernando was working on and had been working on for three years, and had almost completed before he resigned to run for national office.

I don’t know its name, but its main objective is to rationalize the entire bus transport system in Metro Manila. The MMDA will take over the bus dispatching activities, using the latest technology which includes Radio Frequency Identification that will allow it to identify and track the movement of every single bus in the system and ensure the proper scheduling and smooth timetables for the various routes.

As Chairman Fernando explained to me, the project has seven bus terminals around Metro Manila, with almost half of these built by private investors – such as the one in Alabang which was put up by Filinvest, one in Malabon put up by the Oretas, and another one in Fairview.

As explained to me, the project hoped to achieve the following:
1. bus riders will know, as they do in bus transport systems abroad, the schedules and routes of the buses they will take.
2. because of non-duplication, buses are assured of a load factor of 60% (where currently, 30% is the norm).
3. which means that buses can accomplish their objectives with four trips rather than five or more.
4. which further means that there will be less pollution, not only because there will be less buses plying the routes at any given time, but that there will be less waiting time and pollution time as buses try to increase their load.

Former Chairman Fernando has informed me that all the equipment were in place when he left, all the systems were ready to go. Plus he tells me the World Bank was ready to give the MMDA P50 million a year in so-called carbon credits because of the reduction in pollution.

Now, the big question is: How come it wasn't pursued when Fernando left? Dinky Soliman had the good sense to continue and expand what her predecessor, Espy Cabral started, because it is a good project. Let us hope that MMDA Chairman Francis Tolentino has the same good sense.


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