(Following is the transcript of the segment "Analysis by Winnie Monsod" which aired on News on Q on November 18, 2010. Prof. Winnie Monsod is the resident analyst of News on Q which airs weeknights at 9:30 p.m. on Q Channel 11.)

Marami ang nagtatanong: Ito bang latest oil price hike ay may kinalaman sa pagsasara ng FPIC pipeline at kakulangan ng supply lalo na sa Metro Manila?

You know what my usual answer is: let's do the arithmetic.

May tinatawag na rule of thumb to compute how the changes in the international prices of petroleum products can be translated into domestic price changes.

Ayon sa oil monitor ng DOE, tumaas nga ang presyo last week ng mga petroleum oil products from their prices two weeks ago.

Gasoline went up by more than $3 a barrel, and diesel by more than $5 a barrel.

Mas specific ang datos na nakuha ho ko based on my independent research.

Diesel prices last week actually went up by $5.176 a barrel from their prices two weeks ago, and gasoline went up by $3.381 per barrel. Kerosene by $4.617 per barrel.

Okay. Ano ang rule of thumb na ginagamit ng mga major players like Shell?

Simple lang.

Step 1: Start with the increase or decrease in the international price between last week and two weeks ago. That is quoted in $/barrel.

Step 2: Multiply that by the average peso-dollar exchange rate for last week, to get the Peso/Barrel equivalent of the price change.

Step 3: To get the Peso /Liter increase, we divide the Peso/Barrel change by 159, because there are 159 liters in a barrel.

Step 4: We then multiply this by 1.12 to get the equivalent increase inclusive of VAT, which is 12%.

Gawin natin ngayon ito para sa diesel: $5.176 per barrel times P43.442 divided by 159 times 1.12 equals P1.58 per liter.

Para sa Kerosene: $4.4617 times P43.442 divided by 159 times 1.12 equals P1.365 per liter.

Para sa Gasoline: $3.381 times P43.442 divided by 159 times 1.12 = P1.03 per liter.

Mag-add tayo ng 6 centavos per liter for transportation cost, which makes the indicated price increase to be:

Diesel: P1.64

Kerosene: P1.42

Gasoline : P1.09

Ngayon, let us compare that with the announced price increases:

Ang unang nag-announce na tataas ang presyo starting Tuesday at 12:01am was Pilipinas Shell.

Shell increased diesel and kerosene prices by P2 per liter,and gasoline prices by P1.50 a liter.

I -side by side natin po :

For Diesel -- the Actual Price Increase is 2 pesos; the rule of thumb computation is one peso and sixty four centavos.

For Kerosene -- the actual price increase is 2 pesos; the rule of thumb is one peso and forty-two centavos.

For Gasoline -- the actual price increase is 1 peso and fifty centavos; the rule of thumb is one peso and nine centavos.

Ano ang conclusion natin: The price increases of the oil companies are obviously greater than what would be indicated by the changes in international prices of petroleum products, hindi po ba?

Which means that these domestic price increases must reflect also -- at least for Shell and Chevron, their increased costs due to the closing of the pipeline, not to mention the shortages, because not enough products can be transported through the alternative methods being used by Shell and Chevron.

Unfortunately, it looks like the rest of the industry, are benefiting from this situation, because they are matching the prices of Shell and Chevron.

Nakikigaya na lang ang iba, which means ang laki ng profit nila, hindi po ba?

Ang pinagdidiinan naman ng mga kumpanya ng langis -- walang kinalaman ang pipeline leak sa oil price hike.

Base sa ating komputasyon... kayo na ang humusga.

Tandaan, maging mapanuri, kilatisin ang mga isyu, ako po si Winnie Monsod on Q.

(Following is the transcript of the segment "Analysis by Winnie Monsod" which aired on News on Q on November 17, 2010. Prof. Winnie Monsod is the resident analyst of News on Q which airs weeknights at 9:30 p.m. on Q Channel 11.)

The Bus Operators who were involved in that lightning bus strike on Monday should be shown the full force of the law. I agree.

Their perfidy, the deceitfulness that marked that strike, makes their actions even more contemptible. I agree.

But if we think that the so-called Unified Vehicular Volume Reduction Program or UVVRP, also known as the number coding system, will be a major contributor to solving our traffic problems, let us disabuse ourselves.

Let the numbers speak for themselves: “EDSA can physically accommodate up to 1,600 buses. But 3,800 city-franchised buses currently ply EDSA”. This from the MMDA itself, quoting from a study conducted by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).

We have to add to that the number of colorum buses, or those which have no legal franchise to operate. And here, from the MMDA (August 5, 2010), we are talking about another 2,200 buses, because “...at least 6,000 buses pass through Edsa and other major roads every day, a considerable number of which are colorum”.

So, doing the arithmetic, the UVVRP, if implemented successfully, will reduce the amount of buses by 1,200 a day, which still leaves 4,800 buses moving up and down EDSA, still three times EDSA’s carrying capacity.

Now then, let us suppose that the MMDA is 100% successful in its anti-colorum program, meaning to say, it manages to remove the estimated non-franchised buses from the road. That will still leave, with the 20% UVVRP coding, 3,800 minus 20% or 3,140 franchised buses plying the streets, or almost double the capacity of EDSA to carry.

But unfortunately, we cannot assume a 100% successful anti-colorum program – because from the recent experience in August, the MMDA was only able to round up 117 vehicles –which included not only buses but taxis and AUVs – in the first day, another 76 in the second day, and then one or two a day for the next fifteen days in August. After that, there are no more news reports.

And in the meantime, we must expect a sudden surge in the demand for fake license plates.

Given all the foregoing, I think it is safe to say that the UVVRP, as an answer to Metro Manila’s traffic problems, is sadly wanting. It may not be worth the effort of putting out 1,800 enforcers, as MMDA has fielded.

Fortunately, there is a better solution – in the sense that the cost-benefit ratio is much higher, that apparently has the approval and cooperation of the bus operators, and one that MMDA already has in its arsenal.

What is that? I suggest that Chairman or Secretary Tolentino resurrect and put the final touches on the project that his predecessor Bayani Fernando was working on and had been working on for three years, and had almost completed before he resigned to run for national office.

I don’t know its name, but its main objective is to rationalize the entire bus transport system in Metro Manila. The MMDA will take over the bus dispatching activities, using the latest technology which includes Radio Frequency Identification that will allow it to identify and track the movement of every single bus in the system and ensure the proper scheduling and smooth timetables for the various routes.

As Chairman Fernando explained to me, the project has seven bus terminals around Metro Manila, with almost half of these built by private investors – such as the one in Alabang which was put up by Filinvest, one in Malabon put up by the Oretas, and another one in Fairview.

As explained to me, the project hoped to achieve the following:
1. bus riders will know, as they do in bus transport systems abroad, the schedules and routes of the buses they will take.
2. because of non-duplication, buses are assured of a load factor of 60% (where currently, 30% is the norm).
3. which means that buses can accomplish their objectives with four trips rather than five or more.
4. which further means that there will be less pollution, not only because there will be less buses plying the routes at any given time, but that there will be less waiting time and pollution time as buses try to increase their load.

Former Chairman Fernando has informed me that all the equipment were in place when he left, all the systems were ready to go. Plus he tells me the World Bank was ready to give the MMDA P50 million a year in so-called carbon credits because of the reduction in pollution.

Now, the big question is: How come it wasn't pursued when Fernando left? Dinky Soliman had the good sense to continue and expand what her predecessor, Espy Cabral started, because it is a good project. Let us hope that MMDA Chairman Francis Tolentino has the same good sense.


For the latest Philippine news stories and videos, visit GMANews.TV

(Following is the transcript of the segment "Analysis by Winnie Monsod" which aired on News on Q on November 4, 2010. Prof. Winnie Monsod is the resident analyst of News on Q which airs weeknights at 9:30 p.m. on Q Channel 11.)

Main protagonists in Makati fuel leak incident
1. West Tower (WT) - Condominium in Barangkay Bangkal
2. City of Makati (City) - office of the Mayor, City Engineer, etc.
3. First Philippine Industrial Corporation (FPIC) - owners of the sole commercial private pipeline in the Philippines, completed in 1969, which transports fuel and petroleum products from Batangas to Sucat and Pandacan, Manila
4. National Institute of Geological Sciencies (NIGS) - headed by Dr. Carlos Arcilla through GeoScience Foundation

Time Line:

July 28, 1976: FPIC sends a letter to DPWH Secretary Baltazar Aquino, to the effect that substantial portions of the 14-inch pipeline will be affected by the then proposed overpass (SLEX) project - 110 meters of the pipeline will be affected by the project's retaining wall.

Comment: No reply

May, 2010: a resident of Capinpin St. in Barangay Bangkal detects the smell of gas or noxious fumes emanating from his deepwell. Tells City.

Comment: Nothing done.

July 9, 2010: WT residents detect smell of fuel fumes in the basement, stairwells, lobby and finally living areas of the condominium - traced to cracks in basement wall and in sump pit in the lowest basement (Basement Level 4).

July 12, 2010: FPIC digs up area of pipeline in front of WT to determine if there are leaks. Results are negative. City asks FPIC to dig 13 "Test Pits" (1.5 m diameter, 2m deep) parallel to pipeline along Bonifacio St to determine presence of gas and/or petroleum products. Tests turn out negative for the soil samples, but positive for water samples.

Comment: FPIC stopped pipeline deliveries from July 12-14, and from July 21-24 to allow for the tests.

July 21, 2010: Noxious smells stronger in WT. City orders WT residents to vacate, cut off electricity, and shut down sump pumps used to pump water from basement into city drains when water in sump pit exceeds a specified level.

Comment: City says WT is told to siphon off expected water buildup from basement using alternative methods to pumping. WT says City informally suggests that they use the pump at night when nobody is looking, but WT demurs. And cannot find the proper contractor.

Result: water build up (with fuel on top) floods basements 4 and 3.

July 27, 2010 press release/news report comes out with following:
1. Flooding of WT basement prevents authorities from determining cause of leak. WT given seven days to siphon out water, or else.
2. City Engineer also "rules out the FPIC pipeline as source of the gas leak leaving the basement of the condominium as the only area not thoroughly investigated"
3. Mayor Binay approved a proposal to:
(a) hire a private company to check for presence of pe,troleum products in water samples from Capinpin St where residents had complained of fumes as early as May;
(b) soil boring tests in the area conducted to locate the presence of petroleum products and the source of the leak.

Comment: It takes WT 39 days and P7 million to execute this order (fuel must be separated from water before water can be discharged into city drains). In the process 8-11 drums of fuel a day are collected from the water at 200 liters per drum or anywhere from 1,600 to 2,200 liters a day of - in separate batches -- gasoline, diesel and kerosene- and in the past two days, the amount had gone up to 14 drums. Furthermore, the proposals approved by Mayor Binay were not carried out, until two months later.

August 9, 2010: In a meeting between WT and Mayor Binay in the Mayor's office, City tells WT that FPIC is not the source of the leak - based on the FPIC letter regarding the findings of the diggings and Test Pits.

Comment: The working hypotheses of the City, at this point, is that WT is the source of the leak - the speculation being that WT has drums of diesel buried under basement 4 for emergency purposes, and that these were the ones leaking. WT claims it has nothing buried underground. What it had was a tank for its genset that had 2.5 drums of diesel, plus another three full drums for reserve. At 200 liters per drum, we are talking about 1,100 liters of diesel in basement 4.

Sept 7, 2010: WT informs City and DENR that basement water is now confined to sump pit, but fuel continues to leak into basement.

Comment: remember that WT still does not use sump pump, but gets an outsider to separate fuel from water so that the water can be drained.

Sept. 13, 2010: Inspection team -- composed of various City agency, DENR and DOE representatives -- verify that WT can be eliminated as source of leak. City still wants to check on gasoline stations and car and motor repair shops in the area as possible sources.

Comment: Which of course doesn't make sense. Gasoline stations that would lose 1,600-2,200 liters a day would soon be out of business, and would at least try to find out how they were losing that much. Repair shops don't use that volume of kerosene. On the other hand, the pipeline transports over 8 million liters a day of a mixture of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel.

Sept. 20, 2010: FPIC hires two separate firms to conduct "Ground Penetration Radar Scans " (GPRS) tests. GPRS tests are "not definitive" but may "point to some possible areas for further examination. Results, upon further examination, included an underground object that had the dimensions of a storage tank, were negative.

October 15, 2010: The results of another test - part of FPIC's quinquennial pipeline integrity check, are submitted to City. This test, conducted by the independent contractor NDT Middle East, (at a cost of $2 million), used the most modern and universally accepted magnetic flux and ultrasonic technologies.

Findings: There are "no metal loss areas that would indicate any leaks are present."

Comment: Faced with an impossible situation, that neither WT nor FPIC are the sources of the leak, City finally brings in the marines by sending a letter to President Emerlinda Roman of the University of the Philippines, who assigns Director Carlos Arcilla of the National Insitute of Geological Science (NIGS) to conduct an independent review.

Even without a written contract, Arcilla and his team of geologists swing into action. Arcilla quickly realizes that given the volume of fuel that has been leaked, given the pattern of the leakages - alternately gasoline, diesel and kerosene that mimic the pattern of what is transported in the pipeline, it cannot be anything but the pipeline. He and his team bore holes, along the pipeline and use "explosimeters" to measure the extent of explosiveness of the fumes that may be found.

October 28, 2010: Early morning - in an area of the pipeline directly under the ramp of the flyover, the dig shows a strong stream of gasoline gushing out. All doubts are erased. The pipeline is the source of the leak.

Comment: The extent of the leak has not yet been determined. The work is hampered by the fact that the leak seems to be right under the flyover - which, 34 years ago, FPIC warned the Marcos government about.

With the benefit of hindsight, here is what happened to the protagonists: we see that the Makati City Government seems to have drawn the wrong conclusions too early in the game; and that it did not implement until almost three months later, the proposal approved by Mayor Binay to get an independent contractor to do the tests.

The West Tower allowed the water to flood their basements, the siphoning out of which wasted 39 days; FPIC believed their digging and their hi-tech tests, and refused to realize the significance of the volume and the pattern of the fuel leaks - until faced with the evidence of gasoline gushing out of the hole bored by the NIGS Team.

NIGS must be congratulated - because they came in even without a contract signed, realizing how large the stakes were. I understand that Dr. Arcilla used his own money to purchase those crucial explosimeters. Arcilla does UP proud. Honor and Excellence.


For the latest Philippine news stories and videos, visit GMANews.TV