(Following is the transcript of the segment “Analysis by Winnie Monsod” which aired on News on Q on July 20, 2009. Prof. Winnie Monsod is the resident analyst of News on Q which airs weeknights at 9:30 p.m. on Q Channel 11.)

Last week, we started evaluating the performance of the President on her “BEAT THE ODDS” desired legacy to the Filipino people as listed in her Medium Term Philippine Development Plan (MTPDP). We graded her according to the proportion of the target that she set that had actually been accomplished by the administration.

We’ve finished with “B.E.A.T.” – “B” for balanced budget, “E” for education for all, “A” for automated elections, and “T” for transport and digital infrastructure.

Now, let's examine the rest of her “BEAT THE ODDS” plan.

“T” FOR Terminating NPA/MILF Hostilities

The target is that peace will have come to Mindanao and all insurgency areas by 2010. Obviously, there can be no quibbling. This has just not happened.

Unfortunately, there is no quantitative way of determining how far along we are on the road to peace. I will go the middle-road between her critics and her supporters and give her a 50 per cent grade – in recognition of the administration's efforts and negotiations. Pasang awa (barely passing).

Now, “H” is for healing the wounds of EDSA.

The MTPDP lists the following action plan:
1. Accelerate compensation to victims of human rights violations; no action here, folks. Zero.
2. Consult people nationwide regarding their views on how to pursue reconciliation and national unity; this has not been done. So a grade of zero.
3. Provide safe venues, where both sides can interact – both oppressor and victim. Again, not done. Zero.
4. Pursue reforms in the military; attempts have been made and one would think that there would be some kind of result. Maybe 30 per cent done.
5. Design and implement creative approaches for handling conflicts involving leading figures of the administrations deposed in February 1986 and on January 2001. Very little done here.
6. Implement effective national security reforms with a balanced focus on both internal and external concerns – this is not relevant for us.

The result of all these is a grade of 30 divided by five which means a grade of 6 per cent.

Now, “e” is for electricity and water for all.
According to the plan, power and water shall have been regularly provided to the entire country. Where do we stand?

The most recent statistics show that around 80 per cent of households have access to safe water and about the same percentage (81 per cent) have access to electricity.

With respect to water, the progress has been at snail's pace... an accomplishment rate of 5 per cent.

With respect to electricity, the measurement we use is the percentage of barangays energized. This percentage went up from 89 per cent at the end of 2003 to 98 per cent at the end of 2008. There is every chance to reach 100 per cent by next year. That corresponds to a grade of 100 per cent.

But, if we use interenational measurement of percentage of households with access to electricity, that unfortunately has not increased over the next 5 years. It means a grade of zero.

100 per cent plus zero, divided by 2 is 50 percent for electricity.
Plus 5 per cent for water divided by 2, you get 27.5 percent. That's what she gets for the “E.”

Now, let's go to the “O.D.D.S.”

“0” for opportunity to create 10 million jobs.

Will she have created 10 million jobs in 2004-2010? The answer is NO.

Let's see why.

The MTPDP projects anywhere from 3.3-3.9 million of those 10 million jobs would be created this year and next year. So, we have to remove that from the 10 million to find out how she has performed so far.

That leaves 6.1-6.7 million new jobs that should have been created over the period 2004-2008. How many new jobs were actually created?

Per data from NSO, 2.8 million additional jobs were created, which means that the president accomplished 42 per cent to 46 per cent of her target employment, which means the Arroyo Administration's grade is 44 per cent.

Now, the two D’s – decongesting Metro Manila and developing Subic-Clark hub.

Decongesting Metro Manila, according to the MTPDP, will be accomplished among others by:

a) establishing new centers for government; that’s a grade of zero.
b.1) the Northrail Project; experts estimate a 10 per cent completion rate, so grade is 10 per cent
b.2) the Southrail project; accomplishment rate is much less than 10 per cent, considering that so far only the Caloocan-Alabang portion is finished. Grade is 5 per cent.
c) Improve transport within Metro Manila. Experts give this an accomplishment rate of 90 per cent.
Adding these three sub-targets (90 per cent +10 per cent +5 per cent) and dividing by three, the grade for decongesting Metro Manila is 35 per cent.

How about developing the Clark-Subic corridor, which includes the creation of Hong Kong or Singapore-type enclaves which are the most competitive in Southeast Asia?

Well, the SCTEX is completed, beautifully and that is a 100 per cent grade.

But, creating the most competitive Hong Kong- or Singapore-type of enclave is another matter altogether.

At most 30 per cent of that has been achieved and therefore, the average of the 2 is 65 per cent.

What can we conclude from all of these?

Well, the Arroyo Administration wanted to be remembered for a 10-point legacy with the acronym BEAT THE ODDS

If one were to grade the actual performance on these areas, here is what we get:

B - balanced budget - 100
E - education for all - 36.7
A - automated elections - 50
T - transport and digital infrastructure - 57.5
T - terminating npa/milf hostilities - 50
H - healing the wounds of EDSA - 6
E - electricity and water for all - 27.5
O - opportunity to create six million jobs - 44
D - decongest Metro Manila - 35
D - develop Subic-Clark hub - 65

If these points were “subjects” of the Arroyo Administration, then it would have passed one subject with flying colors, 2 subjects by the skin of its teeth, another 2 subjects with a low passing grade, and 5 subjects failing miserably.

That's a general average of 47.17 per cent – where 50 per cent is the passing mark.

The question that seems to be in the minds of people is whether she should be kicked out or she should be made to repeat.

But, aside from the legacy she wants to leave behind, Pres. Arroyo will also have to answer for 3 perhaps unintended legacies:
1. The increase in corruption
2. The increase in human rights violations
3. The increase in bureaucracy and overall demoralization of the civil service
These are going to be on her conscience.