Half of voters at every clustered precinct will not be able to vote in the May 10 polls due to insufficient time, effectively disenfranchising a number of voters come election day, a study conducted by a convener of multi-sectoral poll watchdog Kontra Daya (Anti-Fraud) showed.

In an interview with GMANews.TV, Prof. Giovanni Tapang of the University of the Philippines’ National Institute of Physics said he had simulated the voting process using a programming language package called the Simulation in Python (SimPy).

“We get results showing that more than half of the 1,000 voters lining up at the clustered precinct will not be able to finish by 6 p.m,” Tapang said.

Voting on May 10, 2010 will begin at 7 a.m. and will end at 6 p.m., or a total of 11 hours. The Commission on Elections expects 50,723,734 voters to flock to 76,340 clustered precincts nationwide on May 10.

Each clustered precinct will have one Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machine and three Board of Election Inspector members. One poll machine can supposedly accommodate about a thousand voters.

On election day, Tapang said, a voter must find his name on the list of voters within 15 minutes and have his identity verified by election inspectors within two-and-a-half minutes. Anything longer than that would mean a backlog, he pointed out.

“If he takes longer than this, chances are that the queue will pile up and not everyone will be able to vote,” Tapang said.

Voting process

He also said the chairman of the Board of Election Inspectors only has 40 seconds to check a voter’s name against the list and facilitate the voting.

Filling out the ballot, he added, should not take more than 10 minutes, and feeding it into the PCOS machine should not take longer than 40 seconds.

“If the whole procedure takes longer than that, the number of voters unable to vote… drastically increases,” Tapang said.

Based on his calculations, he said only 495 of the expected 1,000 voters will be able to vote.

He also said at least 95 voters must arrive every hour to make sure the full number can be accommodated by 6 p.m.

Tapang said the simulation did not take into account “untoward incidents.” It also did not include bathroom and lunch breaks for election inspectors and any possible electronic problems.

“Even if a voter moves fast, if the election inspector is the problem, then there will still be a long line,” he said in Filipino.

Dependent on voters

Comelec Commissioner Gregorio Larrazabal earlier said they had also conducted voting simulations, and that they had managed to pull it off, accommodating about 120 voters per hour. In one instance, they managed to helped about 400 voters before lunch.

“The notion that you can’t process 1,000 voters in 11 hours doesn’t make any sense,” he said.

Comelec Chairman Jose Melo, for his part, said the flow of the voting process would also depend on the voters.

“My advice to the voters is go to polling places early and avoid last-minute voting,” Melo said in Filipino. — By Kimberly Jane Tane, GMANews.TV

Dasmariñas, Cavite – Presidential candidate Senator Manuel Villar Jr. on Wednesday said he will not join Filipino boxing champion Manny Pacquiao’s victory motorcade upon the latter’s arrival in the country.

Villar made the statement a few days after the Commission on Elections (Comelec) warned candidates against using Pacquiao’s victory motorcade to campaign for the May 10 elections. [See: Poll candidates warned vs politicizing Pacquiao victory]

“Sa unang araw lang naman, iiwan ko muna yung formal ceremonies sa bayan bilang parangal sa isang bayani. Ibigay natin sa kanya yan (On the first day, I will leave the formal ceremonies to the public to let them honor a hero. Let’s give him that),” Villar told reporters during his visit to the Dasmariñas Kadiwa Public Market in Cavite on Wednesday morning.

However, Villar was quick to add, “Sa ibang araw ibang usapan na (It’ll be different on other days).”

Pacquiao, the party’s congressional bet in Sarangani province, is expected to arrive in Manila on March 22, four days before the start of the campaign period for local posts. The Pinoy pugilist triumphed over boxer Joshua Clottey last Saturday (Sunday in Manila). [See: Pacquiao dominates Clottey, wins by unanimous decision]

The Nacionalista Party will be conducting a separate victory motorcade and celebration for Pacquiao. Villar said Pacquiao would accompany him in his sorties in different parts of the country.

“Not necessarily Sarangani, pwedeng sa buong Pilipinas sumama (Not necessarily Sarangani, he can join us all other sorties in the country),” Villar said. “Sa akin, kung ano ang gusto ni Manny. Bilang isang kaibigan ay natutuwa ako na gusto niya ako tulungan, it’s something na ina-appreciate ko (I’m okay with whatever Manny wants. As a friend, I’m happy that he wants to help me, it’s something that I appreciate.”

Wednesday is the second time that the NP has campaigned in Cavite, which is the third most vote-rich area in the country. Aside from Dasmariñas market, the NP bets also visited the Imus public market.

As of posting time, the NP is currently conducting a mini-rally at Brgy. San Juan in Dasmariñas. Present were NP vice presidential bet Sen. Loren Legarda and senatorial bets Gilbert Remulla, Adel Tamano, Liza Maza, Satur Ocampo, and Ramon Mitra III. Detained colonel Ariel Querubin was represented by his son Martin. - TJD, GMANews.TV

More than 49 million have become eligible for voting in the 2010 elections so far, more than four million higher than in the polls two years ago, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) said on Thursday.

Comelec Commissioner Gregorio Larrazabal told reporters that as of the last count, registered voters had reached 49,271,492. In the 2007 elections, there were 45,029,443 registered voters.

The number is still expected to rise since there are 22 more municipalities that have yet to submit their reports to the poll body

Larrazabal said the municipalities had failed to submit their reports mostly due to the failure of the Election Registration Board, which decides which voters are qualified, to meet on time.

Meanwhile, Larrazabal said there are currently 37,062 voting centers and 74,427 clustered precincts.

Each clustered precinct will have one precinct count optical scan (PCOS) machine, which can accommodate up to 1,000 voters. Each clustered precinct will also have at least three Board of Election Inspectors.

The Comelec said it would tap about 245,000 teachers to serve as election inspectors in next year’s polls. — Kim Tan/RSJ, GMANews.TV

Public school teachers who will be serving as board of election inspectors in the 2010 elections can now look forward to a higher compensation package, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) said Wednesday.

In a press conference, Commissioner Gregorio Larrazabal said they met with the Department of Education (DepEd) last week and informed them of the new compensation package that public school teachers will be getting in next year’s polls.

“They were quite happy with the figure we gave them,” he said, adding that they have agreed that they will give the payment to the DepEd and the department will be the one to distribute it to the teachers.

Larrazabal refused to say the how much they would be paying the teachers next year exactly but said that if they were to compare the P3,000 package that teachers got in the previous elections, the deal that they will get next year is definitely better.

The commissioner said that last year, teachers were given a P3,000 compensation package for three days of poll work – P1,000 for each day.

“It’s higher than 1000. It’s a good package,” he said, adding that the new compensation package for four days of pre-election and election work will include leave credits and benefits like legal assistance and medical assistance to be provided by the Comelec itself.

“You also have to remember it’s not only money, but also non-money. What we presented to the DepEd is like that, it’s not just mathematical increase,” added poll body spokesman James Jimenez.

Jimenez said they estimate that they will be needing about 245,000 teachers to serve as BEIs in next year’s polls. He added that there will be about 74,000 clustered precincts – each of which will need at least three BEIs.

But Larrazabal was quick to note that teachers will be getting the better end of the bargain because the amount of work that they will need to do is lessened because of automation.

“At the end of voting, they just need to press a few buttons. This will be less tiring for teachers,” he said. The commissioner was pertaining to the “convenience” that the teachers will be experiencing because the Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machine will be doing the counting of the ballots and printing of the election return for them.

And despite the supposed lessened risks for teachers because of automation, he said their security is still one of their priorities. “The teachers are very important, we value their security,” he said.

Larrazabal said they are still going to conduct several more meetings with the DepEd to discuss their training for automated polls in early February. – GMANews.TV

Many thought that her 2007 victory as a second-term governor was also the extension of the people’s victory against a three-decade dynastic rule in Isabela province. But on December 8, Grace Padaca – the only Filipino local official honored last year with a Ramon Magsaysay award for supposedly empowering voters to reclaim their democratic right – was unseated from her post through a 12,000-page decision by the Commission on Elections (Comelec).

Shock was Padaca’s initial reaction to the Comelec’s decision. “Di ko maubos maisip na ‘yung 17,000 votes na lamang ko sa kanya na ganun na lang mababaligtad. (I can’t imagine how my 17,000-vote lead over him would be turned around just like that).”

Padaca was referring to Benjamin Dy, her political opponent who, according to the “final appreciation” of the Comelec’s Second Division, won the 2007 polls with 198,384 votes or a winning margin of 1,051 votes over that of Padaca.

According to Padaca, Dy’s petition failed to substantiate how he regained the 17,000 votes from her, unlike her evidence of 46 pages, including folders of the photocopies of ballots detailing how she maintained the 17,000-vote lead.

After the disbelief came Padaca’s realization that the issue was no longer about her, but the people’s trust in the Comelec’s capability to ensure clean and honest elections in 2010.

“Hindi ako kapit-tuko sa kapangyarihan. I just want to be assured na di ako ginagago sa prosesong ito. This is not just about me. Paano pa mapagkakatiwalaan ang Comelec sa 2010 election? (I’m not clinging to power. I just want to be assured that I’m not being fooled in this process. How can the Comelec be trusted in the 2010 polls?)” said Padaca.

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At least one political analyst shares Padaca’s view. Ramon Casiple, executive director of the Institute for Political and Electoral Reform, sees an “alarming” pattern not just in the recent decisions of the Comelec, but also in the rulings of Supreme Court that could have a “negative bearing on the conduct of fair and honest elections” next year. [See: SC: Appointive officials may hold on to posts after filing COCs and SC: Infomercials before campaign period legal]

“Ang tanong kasi ay kung mananalo ba ang administrasyon sa susunod na eleksyon? (The question is will the administration win in the coming elections?)… So what is the administration up to now?” said Casiple in an interview with GMANews.TV on Wednesday.

“It is placing its people in the government a few months before the polls so they can access government resources for the campaign and ensure the victory of the administration in rich-vote areas,” added Casiple.

Casiple said the situation being faced by Padaca is similar to that of Jonjon Mendoza who was earlier unseated by the same Comelec division headed by commissioner Nicodemo Ferrer after the Bulacan governor decided to leave the administration party in favor of the Liberal Party.

Last September, Padaca and Pampanga governor Ed Panlilio also decided to throw their support behind LP standard-bearer, Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” Aquino III.

Like Padaca and Mendoza, administration allies are also trying to unseat Panlilio from his gubernatorial post.

In the 2007 polls, Panlilio beat Lilia Pineda by 1,407 votes, a margin repeatedly challenged by his political opponents until the election case was elevated to the Supreme Court. The high tribunal recently decided to resume the hearing of the petition questioning Panlilio’s victory.

But Casiple said the tight situation being faced by progressive leaders such as Padaca “will just be temporary.”

“Malaki ang possibility na manalo uli si Padaca at iba pang progressive leaders (There’s a big possibility that Padaca and other progressive leaders will win again in the 2007 polls). In the light of the Noynoy phenomenon, I think 40 to 50 percent of the electorate will vote based on issues and not on personalities,” said Casiple. – with reports from Kimberly Jane T. Tan, GMANews.TV

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo will pay yet another visit to her home province of Pampanga Wednesday, this time to unveil a marker for a P75-million chapel.

It will be President Arroyo’s first visit to Pampanga after she announced last November 30 her plan to run for congresswoman of the province’s second district.

A Malacañang statement said the marker would be for the Holy Guardian Angel Chapel of the Holy Angel University – Central Luzon’s biggest and largest private university that has 16,000 students and 900 employees – in Angeles City.

President Arroyo had visited Pampanga at least 50 times so far this year.

Arroyo critics said the President would use the House of Representatives as her stepping stone to the position of prime minister once her allies in Congress succeed in pushing for a shift to the parliamentary form of government through Charter change.

At least two disqualification cases – one filed by Akbayan Rep. Risa Hontiveros and another by presidential aspirant Ely Pamatong – are now pending with the Commission on Elections (Comelec).

The Palace statement said that in Wednesday’s event, a Mass would follow the inaugural ceremony for the Holy Guardian Angel Chapel.

“The chapel, dedicated to the Holy Guardian Angel, patron saint of the school and the city, serves as a shrine to an antique image commissioned in 1830 by Don Angel Pantaleon de Miranda, founder of the university,” the Palace said. - KBK, GMANews.TV

An internal squabbling within the Kilusang Bagong Lipunan resulted to the collapse of its alliance with the Nacionalista Party of Senator Manuel Villar.

But NP spokesman Gilbert Remulla maintained that they would keep Ilocos Norte Rep. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. in their senatorial slate for the 2010 elections.

“It [alliance] is now replaced by the adoption of Rep. Bongbong Marcos as a Nacionalista Party official senatorial candidate,” said Remulla, himself an NP senatorial bet, in a press statement.

Bongbong is the only son of the late President Ferdinand Marcos and former First Lady Imelda Marcos. The late strongman founded the KBL in 1978, which until 1986 was the most dominant party in Philippine politics.

On November 20, the NP and KBL formalized their alliance at the Laurel House in Mandaluyong City. No less than Villar, NP standard bearer, announced the inclusion of Bongbong in their senatorial lineup.

But other KBL leaders said the alliance was forged without the consent of the party’s national directorate, which it said is the sole body that represents them.

Vicente Millora, chairman of KBL, said Bongbong resigned as their member in 1987, although Mrs. Marcos remains as their honorary chairperson.

Bongbong, however, insisted that he is still with the KBL. He also underscored his full commitment to NP’s crusade against poverty in empowering the majority of Filipinos who are in dire straits.

Bongbong began his political career as Ilocos Norte vice governor in 1980 at the age of 23. In 1992, he was elected representative of the province’s second district, and then was elected as the province’s governor for three consecutive terms starting 1998.

In 2007, he was elected back to the House of Representatives, where he now serves as its deputy minority leader. One of the important legislation he authored was the Philippine Archipelagic Baselines Law or Republic Act 9522.

Mrs. Marcos, meanwhile, is running for Congress in the Ilocos Norte’s second district next year. – Amita Legaspi/KBK/RSJ, GMANews.TV

Senatorial aspirant and Akbayan Rep. Risa Hontiveros on Monday asked the Commission on Elections (Comelec) to disqualify President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo from running for Congress in the second district of Pampanga next year.

In her four-page petition, Hontiveros said Mrs. Arroyo should also be disqualified for denying her opponents equal opportunity for public service since they would be fighting an incumbent president who has the country’s resources at her disposal.

This, she said, violates the equal protection clause stipulated in Article III Section I of the 1987 Constitution, which states that “no person shall be deprived of life, liberty, or property without protection of the laws.”

“Allowing a sitting President to run for office would open a veritable Pandora’s Box and, when interfaced with other existing laws and policies, present fundamental questions of equity,” she said.

Hontiveros was the second to challenge Mrs. Arroyo’s congressional bid, the first one being lawyer Ely Pamatong, who is running for president in next year’s elections.

Malacañang, meanwhile, dismissed Hontiveros’ move against Mrs. Arroyo, saying the party-list lawmaker was only seeking media mileage to push for her senatorial candidacy.

“From reports I received, the grounds are hypothetical, speculative and without basis. We will answer if so required by the Comelec. Filing a case is very easy, the hard part of it is proving the grounds,” said Presidential Spokesman for Political Matters Romulo Macalintal, a noted election lawyer.

Press Secretary Cerge Remonde said Malacañang welcomes the case, confident that the President’s lawyers would be “ready, willing and able to defend” her. - KBK, GMANews.TV

The Liberal Party (LP) and Kaya Natin movement slammed the Arroyo administration on Monday for what they called its “vendetta politics” against at least three governors, whose victories in the 2007 local elections are now being subjected to recounting just because “they are LP members.”

This after they received reports that the Commission on Election’s (Comelec) second division will rule against Isabela Gov. Grace Padaca and Pampanga Gov. Ed Panililio on the recount cases filed against them by their political rivals in the 2007 polls.

“(This is) part of the grand plot by the present administration to oust duly elected officials particularly those who belonged to the Liberal Party,” said LP senatorial candidate and Bukidnon (2nd dist.) Rep. Teofisto Guingona III as he read the stand of Kaya Natin.

“This is vendetta politics in ensuring that those who are able to do stand up against the administration would be punished,” said another LP senatorial bet and Bukidnon politician, Nereus “Neric” Acosta.

Panlilio, a Roman Catholic priest who ran and won in the 2007 elections as Pampanga governor, is contesting a recall petition filed with the Comelec by former provincial board member Lilia Pineda, the wife of businessman Rodolfo “Bong” Pineda, a well-known financier and staunch ally of President Arroyo.

Pineda, who lost to Panlilio by a margin of 1,147 votes, accused the winning politician-priest of cheating and initiated recount proceedings against him with the Comelec. The decision will be promulgated on December 16, said Commissioner Nicodermo Ferrer, head of Comelec’s second division.

In the case of Isabela province, Gov. Padaca is contesting a recall petition filed with the Comelec by former governor Bejamin Dy of the powerful Dy political clan. Citing unidentified sources, Padaca said the poll body’s second division will release its decision on Tuesday, December 8, in favor of Dy.

In a related case, the same Comelec division ruled against Bulacan Gov. Joselito Mendoza on an electoral protest filed against him by former Bulacan governor Roberto Pagdanganan. The decision was released after Mendoza’s Partido del Pilar coalesced with the LP for the 2010 polls.

“What do we have in common? We are LP members,” said Panlilio.

Recount cases against the three governors, however, had been filed even before they joined LP, whose presidential and vice president bets, Senators Benigno Aquino and Manuel Roxas II, have been leading the surveys.

But Guingona said Pacada and Panlilio did not have the money and machinery to rig the election results.

“We strongly belie the allegations of election fraud and cheating as absolutely false and baseless,” said Guingona, even as he called on the Comelec to “maintain its independence.”

Commissioner Ferrer, for his part, advised the two governors to wait for the poll body’s decision before making any judgment.

“Wag nilang siraan kami (They shouldn’t unjustly accuse us). Why don’t we just wait for the resolution, (maybe they’ll even) be taken by surpsise,” said Ferrer in a phone interview with GMANews.TV.

Ferrer added that the Comelec has been “very transparent” in conducting the recount cases. It has even invited the media and an independent poll watcher to witness the recounting, he said. – JV/GMANews.TV

The elections in Maguindanao province, now under martial in connection with the November 23 massacre of 57 people there, will push through as scheduled next year despite the turmoil, the head of the Commission on Elections (Comelec) said on Monday.

“Whatever it is, hindi pwedeng magkaroon ng no elections. We will not allow it. Kapag nag-no elections tayo, that’s the end of democracy,” Comelec Chairman Jose Melo told reporters in an interview.

(We cannot not have elections in Maguindanao. If that happens then that’s the end of democracy.)

He said the worst-case scenario is if people in Maguindanao would not go out on May 10, 2010 to vote – a situation that could lead to the declaration of failure of elections in the province.

Article 6 of the Omnibus Election Code states that a failure of election is declared if the voting in any polling place was not held on the date fixed or was suspended before the closing of the voting “on account of violence, terrorism, fraud, or other analogous causes.”

At present, the poll body is not even mulling on transferring its office in Maguindanao from Shariff Aguak, the provincial capitol, according to Commissioner Nicodemo Ferrer.

Melo said he would leave the situation in Maguindanao to security officials.

“Hindi ko masydong iniintindi yun. Basta ang akin lang maging normal ang situation so that we can hold elections. Responsibility na yun ng administration to see to it na ma-normalize ang situation doon,” he said.

(I’m leaving the situation in Maguindanao to the administration. I just want them to make the situation there normal so that we can hold elections.) – Kimberly Jane Tan/LBG/KBK, GMANews.TV