Administration vice presidential bet Eduardo “Edu” Manzano claims to know the secret of an effective advertising campaign.

It’s all about the timing and the message, he told GMANews.TV during a campaign sortie in Valenzuela City on Friday.

However, even though rivals have spent substantial amounts on their own advertisements, the former Makati City mayor has yet to air his own commercials.

But this has not reduced his optimism regarding his upcoming commercials which he claimed would boost his numbers in the surveys.

“Iyong iba, daan-daang milyon ang binubuhos pero hindi naman umaangat ang numbers [Others spend hundreds of millions but still do not fare any better in the surveys],” Manzano said.

In a February Pulse Asia survey, Manzano lagged behind four other vice presidential candidates and only earned a two-percent rating — the same rating he got in January.

Pouring too much money into an ad campaign could eventually tire voters, he said.

Candidates who spend too much on television, radio, and print advertisements run the risk of saturating media and become victims of what analysts call “ad fatigue,” he added.

“I will listen to the advice of my advisers to review our message. Let’s review the timing,” said Manzano, who is running alongside Lakas-Kampi-CMD presidential bet Gilberto Teodoro Jr.

For his campaign, Teodoro has been carrying the “Galing at Talino (Skills and Intelligence)” theme.

In a late February presidential preference survey conducted by Pulse Asia among voters, Liberal Party’s Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III and Nacionalista Party’s Manuel “Mar” Villar both suffered a respective one-percent and six-percent drop in their ratings.

Meanwhile, Manzano’s running mate Teodoro — who have been scarce in the political advertising arena compared to the LP and NP bets — achieved a two-percent improvement in his ratings.

Some political analysts later said that one of the possible reasons for Aquino and Villar’s ratings plunge was “ad fatigue.”

Among his rivals, LP’s Manuel “Mar” Roxas and NP’s Loren Legarda seemed to be the powerhouse ad spenders before and after the start of the campaign period on February 9.

According to a report of the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism, Roxas spent around P184 million within the two months that preceded the start of the campaign period — or from November to December.

Meanwhile, during the entire week before February 9, Legarda suddenly jacked up her TV ad spending to almost P50 million or about 63 percent of the value of all her tri-media ad placements from November 2009 to January 2010.

But Manzano said he believes that the traditional way of personally meeting with the voters was still the most effective campaign strategy.

“Wala pa ring tatalo doon sa actual na lalapit ka sa tao. Doon ako komportable… Doon ako nagsimula bilang government official,” said the former vice mayor of Makati City.

(Nothing beats actually getting close to the people. I’m comfortable with that. That’s what I did when I was starting out as a government official.)

He also said his team is relying on alternative forms of advertising through the Internet and social networking sites like Facebook, Friendster, and Twitter.

Asked when his television advertisements would be coming out, Manzano said he did not know since it will be the party who’ll decide when to lay down their advertising cards on the table.

“We agreed that we will first finish our [ad] product and give it to the party to decide when to air it. But that will air, eventually,” he assured.

‘Greatest love of all’

Manzano’s visit to the Silvestre Lazaro Elementary School in Barangay Ugong was part of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD party’s scheduled sortie in Valenzuela City on Friday.

Teodoro had joined Manzano in the first part of Friday’s sortie when the tandem visited Colegio de Sta. Cecilia and Our Lady of Lourdes College in the neighboring Gen. T. De Leon village.

After the visit in the two schools, Teodoro no longer dropped by at the Silvestre Lazaro Elementary School.

Manzano, in explaining to the adulated students and teachers Teodoro’s absence, said “May iba pa po siyang pupuntahan. Pero makakakaasa po kayo na sa start ng campaign period for local elections ay makikita nyo kami ng madalas.”

A woman in the crowd, obviously disappointed by Teodoro’s absence, later told GMANews.TV, “Paano namin siya iboboto kung hindi namin siya nakikita (How will we vote for him when we weren’t even able to get to see him?).”

Still, an amused crowd cheered when Manzano delivered his speech and when administration bet and lawyer Raul Lambino broke into a song number, belting out the Whitney Houston classic “The Greatest Love of All.”

Lambino, a law professor at the University of the East in Manila, said their party is still banking on what he called as “high-quality campaigning.”

“Kami lang po ang hindi naninira ng ibang kandidato kapag kami ay nangangampanya [We are the only party that does not employ mud-slinging during our sorties],” Lambino boasted. –MARK D. MERUEÑAS, GMANews.TV

President Joseph Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino took a swipe at two of his rivals to loud cheers of his supporters on Friday.

However, he refused to name them.

“Iyong mga tinatawag ang sarili nilang oposisyon, mga sinungaling iyan, lalo na iyong kumukuha ng kulay ko,” Estrada said before orange-clad supporters from the Citizens Movement of Justice, Economy, Environment, and Peace, more commonly known as JEEP ni Erap.

(Those who consider themselves as part of the opposition, they’re all liars, especially the one who has appropriated my campaign’s official color.)

One of his rivals in the presidential race, Senator Manuel ‘Manny’ Villar, uses orange as his campaign color.

Meanwhile, still refusing to name names, Estrada said: “Iyong isa naman, nag-apologize na nga iyong nanay, siya ayaw naman.”

Aquino’s mother, the late president Corazon apologized for her participation in the so-called EDSA 2 that deposed Estrada and catapulted President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to power in 2001

Later asked by reporters if Aquino already apologized to him, Estrada answered in the negative.

“Hindi pa [humihingi ng tawad]. Wala naman akong inaantay [na humingi siya ng tawad],” Estrada said.

(Not yet. And I’m not waiting for one.)

Asked if he was hurt by the gesture, Estrada continued: “Siyempre.. Pero napatawad ko na.”

(Of course. But I’ve let that pass already.)

Erap’s trust rating goes up

Estrada’s ratings caught up in the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey, gaining two points from previous survey results.

Estrada scored 15 percent, third to Aquino’s 36 percent and Villar’s 34 percent. Aquino lost six points, while Villar lost one point.

Estrada’s camp is targeting a 30-percent trust rating come Election Day to ensure his victory through house-to-house campaigns from JEEP members.

“We are seeing a six-percent increase in President Erap’s ratings by the end of March, and another six percent by the end of April, and 30 percent by Election Day,” JEEP chairman Horacio Morales said.

Donations to bishops

Estrada also defended his donations to the Catholic Church, reacting to Manila Archbishop Gaudencio Cardinal Rosales’ statement frowning on candidates’ donation to the Church in exchange for photo opportunities.

“Of course I donate in exchange for nothing. ‘Di pamumulitiko iyon. Nagsasakristan pa ako noon, nagdodonate na ako.”

(It’s not politicking. Even when I served as an altar boy when I was younger, I already made donations.)

Asked if he was seeking the support of the Catholic prelates, Estrada said that “he would love [bit of] every support” but he would not interfere with their choice. -NIKKA CORSINO, GMANews.TV

Three presidential candidates have already used more than half of their allowed television airtime in two networks, a coalition monitoring campaign expenses bared Wednesday.

According to Pera’t Pulitika (Money and politics), Sen. Manny Villar Jr. (Nacionalista Party) is the presidential candidate who has used the most airtime so far for his political advertisements.

Candidates are given up to 120 minutes of airtime for their political ads for each TV network.

Citing information from Nielsen Media, the group said Villar has already used 76.5 minutes both in GMA 7 and ABS-CBN, followed by former President Joseph Estrada (Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino) with 65 minutes (GMA 7) and 77.5 minutes (ABS-CBN), Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III (Liberal Party) with 66 minutes (GMA 7) and 76 minutes (ABS-CBN), and Sen. Richard Gordon (Bagumbayan) with 48 minutes (GMA 7) and 52 minutes (ABS-CBN).

Covered by the monitoring was the period from February 9 to March 9, according to a report in GMA News’ “24 Oras.”

Candidates still have until May 8 to campaign.

Malou Mangahas, executive director of the Philippine Center of Investigative Journalism (PCIJ), said a “gap” in the law could allow these candidates to circumvent the 120-minute airtime limit.

“Maaaring magpalusot sila, halimbawa yung political party ang kanilang gamiting ad buyer, o kaya party-list groups (They can circumvent the airtime limit by using their political parties or a party-list group as the ad buyer),” she said.

Lawyer Roberto Cadiz of Pera’t Pulitika said this practice leads to the “corruption of the party-list system.”

“Apparently some party-list groups are being created not so much to advocate minority interests or the underrepresented sector but to get around the campaign finance laws,” he said.

The group noted the similarity of the Akap Bata party-list group’s TV ad, which shows children singing about poverty, to Villar’s.

Akap Bata, however, said it is aware of the comparison but added that Villar has nothing to do with them. – KBK, GMANews.TV

Bagumbayan presidential candidate Richard Gordon intends to scrap term limits for local government officials, through Constitution amendment, in case he’s elected in the May elections.

“Gusto ko longer terms for local officials… sapagkat ang nangyayari pagka two years eh kampanya na ng kampanya. At pagka may limit, pinapalit yung kapatid, anak, asawa. Kalokohan lang ‘yan,” he said in the GMA News’ election show “Kandidato.”

(I want longer terms for local officials… because if it’s only two years, there will be almost constant campaigning. And if term limits are imposed, a sibling, child or spouse merely takes [the outgoing official’s place]. That’s foolishness.)

Under the 1987 Constitution, local elective officials like mayors and governors and Lower House representatives are only allowed to serve three successive three-year terms.

During the interview, Gordon said that if he is elected president, he would push for a change in this constitutional provision. His proposal is for local elective officials to serve six years during their first term, then be allowed to run for unlimited four-year terms thereafter.

He did not elaborate on how to handle problems of synchronizing elections that this scheme would entail.

The Bagumbayan standard bearer, who served as mayor of Olongapo City for 13 years before becoming senator, also said a person or family should not be banned from dominating local politics over a certain area as long as they do not intimidate the people or impose on the electorate.

He added that children of politicians often also grow up to become public servants, since it is human nature for a child to follow the footsteps of his parents. “Basta bumoto ang tao, bakit ko naman ipagkakait (If people vote [that way], why should I prevent them)?” he said.

Gordon comes from a prominent family of Olongapo politicians that has produced five of the city’s mayors—his father James Leonard T. Gordon, his mother Amelia, himself, his wife Katherine, and his brother James Jr.

JC de los Reyes, himself an Olongapo councilor and presidential candidate of Ang Kapatiran party, is Gordon’s nephew.—Aie Balagtas See/JV, GMANews.TV

Administration party vice-presidential bet Edu Manzano failed to show up in a radio interview with broadcast journalist Mike Enriquez on Thursday morning, supposedly due to “conflict of schedule.”

Manzano was scheduled to take the hot seat in the dzBB radio show “Ikaw Na Ba: The Vice-Presidential Interview” on Thursday morning, but backed out the day before, according to Enriquez.

Reli German, Manzano’s campaign manager, said in a text message to Enriquez on Wednesday afternoon that the Lakas-Kampi-CMD vice-presidential aspirant had to go to Butuan City in Agusan del Norte for a sortie “on instructions of PGMA (President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo).”

In the same text message, which was read by Enriquez during his radio show, German requested for a 30-minute phone patch for Manzano instead of a live interview.

Enriquez, however, said that it would be unfair for other candidates who attended the radio show in person if Manzano will be interviewed only through phone patch.

“Hindi ito ‘Sorry na lang kami’ kundi ‘Sorry na lang kayo, mga Kapuso’… Ipapakilala sana namin si Ginoong Edu Manzano sa inyong aming mga tagapakinig (Manzano’s camp should not be sorry to us but to our listeners,” he said in his radio show in reaction to German’s text message.

Manzano was the first candidate for vice president to miss the radio interview, according to Enriquez.

In a separate phone interview with GMANews.TV, German clarified that President Arroyo “had nothing to do with the change of schedule.”

He said the instructions to proceed to Butuan City were “from party leaders” who wanted Manzano and administration party standard bearer Gilberto Teodoro Jr. to attend a meeting with local officials there.

“Nagkamali ako doon… Wala siyang [President Arroyo] kinalaman sa change of schedule. (I committed a mistake there. President Arroyo had nothing to do with the change of schedule.) Edu was in Davao last night and was scheduled to fly back to Manila at 7 p.m., but he got instructions from party leaders to go to Butuan for a meeting with local officials and a sortie with the Lakas slate,” he said.

German added that Mrs. Arroyo, president emeritus of Lakas-Kampi-CMD, would also be in Butuan on Thursday, but would not be attending the meeting and the administration party sortie.

He apologized to the listeners on Manzano’s behalf, saying that the vice-presidential aspirant’s failure to attend the radio interview was an “unfortunate” event.

“This was an unfortunate change of schedule. Nakaplano na. Nakakahiya at ikinalulungkot namin ito, pero kinailangan niyang umattend sa meeting (This interview has already been planned. We are both ashamed and saddened because of this, but Edu really had to attend that meeting),” he said. — Andreo Calonzo, GMANews.TV

Dasmariñas, Cavite – Presidential candidate Senator Manuel Villar Jr. on Wednesday said he will not join Filipino boxing champion Manny Pacquiao’s victory motorcade upon the latter’s arrival in the country.

Villar made the statement a few days after the Commission on Elections (Comelec) warned candidates against using Pacquiao’s victory motorcade to campaign for the May 10 elections. [See: Poll candidates warned vs politicizing Pacquiao victory]

“Sa unang araw lang naman, iiwan ko muna yung formal ceremonies sa bayan bilang parangal sa isang bayani. Ibigay natin sa kanya yan (On the first day, I will leave the formal ceremonies to the public to let them honor a hero. Let’s give him that),” Villar told reporters during his visit to the Dasmariñas Kadiwa Public Market in Cavite on Wednesday morning.

However, Villar was quick to add, “Sa ibang araw ibang usapan na (It’ll be different on other days).”

Pacquiao, the party’s congressional bet in Sarangani province, is expected to arrive in Manila on March 22, four days before the start of the campaign period for local posts. The Pinoy pugilist triumphed over boxer Joshua Clottey last Saturday (Sunday in Manila). [See: Pacquiao dominates Clottey, wins by unanimous decision]

The Nacionalista Party will be conducting a separate victory motorcade and celebration for Pacquiao. Villar said Pacquiao would accompany him in his sorties in different parts of the country.

“Not necessarily Sarangani, pwedeng sa buong Pilipinas sumama (Not necessarily Sarangani, he can join us all other sorties in the country),” Villar said. “Sa akin, kung ano ang gusto ni Manny. Bilang isang kaibigan ay natutuwa ako na gusto niya ako tulungan, it’s something na ina-appreciate ko (I’m okay with whatever Manny wants. As a friend, I’m happy that he wants to help me, it’s something that I appreciate.”

Wednesday is the second time that the NP has campaigned in Cavite, which is the third most vote-rich area in the country. Aside from Dasmariñas market, the NP bets also visited the Imus public market.

As of posting time, the NP is currently conducting a mini-rally at Brgy. San Juan in Dasmariñas. Present were NP vice presidential bet Sen. Loren Legarda and senatorial bets Gilbert Remulla, Adel Tamano, Liza Maza, Satur Ocampo, and Ramon Mitra III. Detained colonel Ariel Querubin was represented by his son Martin. - TJD, GMANews.TV

You can’t blame self-styled “international lawyer” Elly Pamatong for trying.

Days after announcing his presidential bid, Pamatong seeks to disqualify three of his rivals – former defense chief Gilberto Teodoro, Jr. and senators Manny Villar and Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III.

Teodoro, Villar, and Aquino should be excluded from the presidential race after they violated the previous ban on premature campaigning for 823 days, Pamatong claimed in a petition filed late Monday.

The self-proclaimed international lawyer was pertaining to the SC ruling reversing its decision dated September 11, 2009 that decriminalizes any political activities done before the start of the campaign period.

In the Sept. 11 decision, the justices voted 8-7 to disqualify Santa Monica, Surigao del Norte mayor Rosalinda Penera when she held a motorcade after filing her candidacy on November 30, 2006 for the May 2007 elections.

Under the Omnibus Election Code, a motorcade is considered a political activity.

SC spokesperson Jose Midas Marquez said the justices, voting 9-5, ruled that the conduct of political activity such as broadcasting infomercials before the start of the campaign season should be considered as “an exercise of the candidates’ freedom of expression.”

“While the split ruling in Penera vs. Comelec was reversed on November 25, Sec. 80 of the election code and the September 11, 2007 Penera vs. Comelec ruling was very much in effect from July 2007 to November 25 – a period of 823 days,” he said.

But Pamatong said although this may have “retroactively cleansed,” the respondents of criminality, their “moral turpitude and evil character” was contrary to the intentions of the Omnibus Election Code.

“All the respondents have knowingly ignored or disregarded this legal position taken by the Comelec and the Supreme Court to level the playing field between the poor and the rich,” said Pamatong, who once caused an uproar five years ago by throwing metal spikes along EDSA, Metro Manila’s busiest thoroughfare.

“Do you really think that allowing the elites to campaign for as long as they want really fair?” he added.

Petition seeks Pacquiao, Lapid disqualification

In a separate petition, Pamatong also called for the disqualification of pound-for-pound king Manny Pacquiao who is seeking a congressional seat in Saranggani and Senator Lito Lapid who is seeking reelection.

Quoting Justice Isagani Cruz, Pamatong said Pacquiao and Lapid should be prevented from running in 2010 because they are just “unqualified professional entertainers.”

“Both Pacquiao and Lapid are politically blind, being unschooled in the art of governance and politically leadership. We cannot just simply hold our hands akimbo and idiotically watch our republic being feasted upon by these power-hungry political pedestrians who want to grab everything in sight,” he said.

After weeding out the nuisance candidates and settling the disqualification cases, the Comelec said it will come out with the official list of candidates by the end of December. – RJAB Jr., GMANews.TV

The Supreme Court on Tuesday junked a petition seeking to disqualify former President Joseph Estrada from running in next year’s presidential elections.

Radio dZBB’s Teresa Tavares quoted the High Court decision as saying that it is not the proper forum for the petition but the Commission on Elections (Comelec).

The petition was filed last week by a group called Vanguard, reportedly headed by one Elio Mallari, a lawyer.

In her report, Tavares quoted Supreme Court deputy spokesperson Gleo Guerra as saying that disqualification cases can only be elevated to the High Court once the Comelec has made a decision on the matter.

At present, two petitions to disqualify Estrada from the 2010 presidential race are pending before the Comelec: one filed by Evillo Pormento and another by lawyer Oliver Lozano.

Both petitions stated that Estrada could no longer seek reelection since he has already occupied the presidency from 1998 to 2001.

Article VII, Section 4 of the 1987 Constitution states that: “The President shall not be eligible for any reelection. No person who has succeeded as President and has served as such for more than four years shall be qualified for election to the same office at any time.”

But Estrada’s camp repeatedly argued that the provision does not apply to him because he only served two and a half years in office.

Estrada, elected in 1998, was forced to step down in January 2001 amid corruption charges. He was convicted of plunder by the Sandiganbayan in September 2007 and was meted reclusion perpetua and disqualified from seeking any public office.

He was, however, pardoned by President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in October 2007. - Andreo Calonzo/RSJ/KBK, GMANews.TV

Several presidential aspirants has expressed opposition to President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s bid for a congressional seat representing Pampanga’s second district, saying it is a mockery of the country’s highest post.

In a forum on Wednesday night, Former President Joseph Estrada said Arroyo’s decision to seek a lower position after nine years in Malacanang is a clear insult to the presidency.

“Naglingkod ka na sa taas. Hindi pa ba siya kuntento doon? (She has already served at the topmost level. Isn’t she satisfied yet?) That is very demeaning,” said Estrada, who was replaced by Arroyo as president after a popular uprising in 2001.

The former president added that since Arroyo has already formalized her congressional bid last Monday, she should vacate the presidential post right away.

“She should resign, because all the government resources are under her thumb. Kawawa kalaban niya (Her opponents would be at a disadvantage),” he said.

Olongapo councilor and Ang Kapatiran party presidential bet John Carlos Delos Reyes also said that it is not right for the President to run for another position after her term.

“Hindi po ako sang-ayon na tumakbo si Arroyo dahil bagamat legal, ito ay labag sa delicadeza at labag sa propriety,” he said in the same forum.

Delos Reyes vowed to support all efforts to block Arroyo’s entry into the House of Representatives, saying the President is setting a bad example among the country’s youth.

Another presidential aspirant, environmentalist Nicanor Perlas, said he would not let Arroyo evade possible cases that might be filed against her in 2010 if elected into office.

“I think it is a huge shame that Arroyo is running again for an elective office… (Ang promise ko), hahabulin ko kung anong kaso (ang isasampa laban sa kanya) to the greatest extent possible (I promise to go after the President if cases are filed against her to the greatest extent possible),” he said.

Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” Aquino III, the Liberal Party’s presidential candidate, meanwhile said he will oppose any moves to shift the government to a parliamentary form and subsequently elect Arroyo as House speaker and prime minister.

“I pledge I will stand up and oppose any effort to try to extend power. ‘Yung pagiging speaker, pagkakaintindi ko ay (paraan para magkaroon ng) power block. Bakit tayo papayag diyan? (I understand that her being House speaker is a way of forming a power bloc. Why would we let this happen?)” the senator said.

Sen. Richard Gordon, who is also running for president under the party Bagumbayan, urged voters in Pampanga’s second district to carefully study Arroyo’s motives before making their decisions in the 2010 polls.

“Nasa kababayan na natin ang husga, pero dapat muni-muniin ang pakay ni Gloria. (It is up to the people to decide, but they should really refect on Gloria’s motives.) We should consider if she there to end the Constitution, to have influence or to defend herself,” he said.

Arroyo formally announced on Monday that she will be running for representative in the second district of Pampanga, where her hometown, Lubao, is located.

Administration critics say Arroyo’s move is only to avoid possible cases that might be hurled towards her one she ends her term in 2010, and a way to gain back power by changing the country’s form of government and assuming the role of prime minister. [See: http://www.gmanews.tv/story/178167/arroyo-announces-bid-for-congress-seat-in-pampanga] - ANDREO C. CALONZO, GMANews.TV

Aside from President Gloria Arroyo, three other popular personalities – former President Joseph Estrada, Filipino boxing champ Emmanuel “Manny” Pacquiao, and television host Willie Revillame – also carry the proverbial “kiss of Death.”

This was one of the findings of a new survey conducted by pollster Pulse Asia in late October.

“Small to sizable majorities (58 percent to 79 percent) are surely/probably not supporting a presidential bet endorsed by President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, former President Joseph Estrada, Mr. Willie Revillame, and People’s Champ Manny Pacquiao,” Pulse Asia said in its Website.

On the other hand, it said the presidential bid of a candidate endorsed by these personalities “would be surely/probably supported by 15 percent to 37 percent of Filipinos.”

While it said a candidate supported by television personality Kris Aquino would “surely/probably get the support of 45 percent of Filipinos,” that candidate “would surely/probably not be elected by 49 percent.”

On the other hand, Pulse Asia noted a presidential bet endorsed by any of these personalities would certainly get the support of at most 11 percent of Filipinos only.

“Electoral endorsements for president coming from any of these individuals would have no effect on the presidential choices of 2 percent to 5 percent of Filipinos, while 3 percent are unable to say what impact such endorsements would have on their choice for president in the May 2010 elections,” it added.

KISS OF DEATH. Candidates who would be endorsed by President Arroyo, former President Estrada, boxing champion Manny Pacquiao, and game show host Willie Revillame may not get the public’s votes, according to Pulse Asia’s latest survey. Photos from AP (Arroyo, Pacquiao), PEP.Ph (Revillame), and Danny Pata (Estrada)

67 percent believe polls to take place

Amid speculations of about a “no-election” (No-El) scenario in 2010 to keep the present administration in power, two of three Filipinos still believe next year’s polls will push through.

But that survey showed that nearly half of Filipinos believe there would be “much trouble” in the country if the polls are canceled.

“Most Filipinos (67 percent) believe that there is a big possibility that next year’s elections will push through as scheduled while a big plurality (49 percent) is of the opinion that there will be much trouble in the country should the May 2010 elections be postponed or canceled,” the survey indicated.

It said 21 percent to 24 percent of Filipinos are not decided on whether the polls will take place as scheduled, while 11 percent believe there is a small possibility the polls will not take place.

On the other hand, some 26 percent do not think much trouble will occur in case the elections are not held.

“Between August and October 2009, there was a decline in the percentage of Filipinos inclined to believe that the postponement or cancellation of the May 2010 elections will result in much trouble (-11 percentage points) and an increase in the percentage of Filipinos who hold a contrary view (+8 percentage points),” Pulse Asia said.

The survey showed majorities across geographic areas and socio-economic classes (57 percent to 80 percent) believe is it highly likely that the May 2010 elections will be held as scheduled.

Residents of Region 10 and Caraga are most inclined to believe otherwise (25 percent) while those in Southern Luzon are most ambivalent on the matter (33 percent).

The belief that violence will result if the May 2010 elections do not push through, is expressed by big pluralities to small majorities (43 percent to 64 percent) in Metro Manila, the Visayas, the rest of Luzon and particularly Northern/Central Luzon, and Region 11.

In Southern Luzon, about the same percentages either think much trouble will result from the cancellation or postponement of the May 2010 elections or express ambivalence on the matter (41 percent versus 34 percent).

In Mindanao, especially Regions 9, 10, 12, the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), and Caraga, nearly the same percentages express either agreement or disagreement with the view that there will be much trouble if next year’s polls are not held (37 percent to 39 percent versus 36 percent to 39 percent).

49 percent to support protests following No-El

Slightly less than half of Filipinos (49 percent) are inclined to support but not join any protests that might arise if the May 2010 elections will not push through.

“In the event that next year’s polls will not push through as scheduled, a near majority of Filipinos (49 percent) will support but will not join any protest actions resulting from the postponement or cancellation of the elections,” it said.

Pulse Asia said the rest will either not support and not join (41 percent) or will support and join such protests (10 percent).

It said these figures are essentially the same as those recorded in August 2009.

Near to big majorities (47 percent to 68 percent) of Metro Manilans, residents of Northern/Central Luzon, Western and Eastern Visayans, and those in all socio-economic classes say they will support but will not join protest actions should the May 2010 elections not be held as scheduled.

Non-participation (not supporting and not joining) is most pronounced in Central Visayas and Mindanao, particularly in Regions 9, 11, 12, and the ARMM (51 percent to 58 percent).

Almost the same percentages of those in the rest of Luzon and especially Southern Luzon, the Visayas as a whole, and Region 10 and Caraga in Mindanao will either support but not join or will not support and will not join such protest actions (46 percent to 49 percent versus 41 percent to 48 percent).

64 percent believe teachers can handle automated polls

While only two of five Filipinos are aware of the automated system to be used next year, almost two out of three (64 percent) Filipinos believe the country’s public school teachers will perform their duty as members of the Board of Election Inspectors (BEI).

A similar percentage (65 percent) believes the teachers are capable of managing the automated election system (AES) in next year’s polls.

“The predominant public sentiment among Filipinos is one of trust in the impartiality of the public school teachers in their role as members of the BEI (64 percent). This is the view articulated by majorities in every geographic area (including sub-areas) and socio-economic class (55 percent to 80 percent), with the exception of Region 10 and Caraga (44 percent). Western Visayans are most inclined to believe in the impartiality of public school teachers as BEI members (80 percent),” Pulse Asia said.

Only seven percent of Filipinos express a contrary opinion while 29 percent are ambivalent on the matter. Public indecision and distrust are most pronounced in Region 10 and the Caraga (38 percent and 18 percent, respectively).

About two in three Filipinos (65 percent) believe that the country’s public school teachers are capable of managing the AES for the May 2010 elections.

Such a sentiment is shared by majorities across geographic areas (including sub-areas) and socio-economic classes ranging from 55 percent in Region 11 to 86 percent in Western Visayas.

“Again, the exception here is Region 10 and Caraga where fewer respondents (45 percent) are inclined to believe in the capability of public school teachers to manage the new system for next year’s polls,” it said.

Less than one in ten Filipinos (7 percent) does not think public school teachers are capable of managing the AES while nearly three in ten (29 percent) express indecision on the matter.

Residents of Region 10 and Caraga are not only most ambivalent on the matter (39 percent) but are also most inclined not to believe in the capability of the country’s teacher to implement the AES next year (16 percent).

On the other hand, only about two out of five Filipinos (40 percent) are aware of the AES that will be implemented in May 2010.

The survey showed one in five (21 percent) said they have almost no or no knowledge about the new system to be used in the May 2010 elections.

Some 13 percent claim to have a great deal of knowledge about the AES while 26 percent say they know enough about it.

Across geographic areas and socio-economic classes, about the same percentages of those in Metro Manila and Class ABC either have enough or little knowledge as regards the AES (35 percdnt versus 33 percent and 36 percent versus 31 percent, respectively). In the rest of Luzon, Visayas, Mindanao, and Classes D and E, big pluralities to near majorities (36 percent to 47 percent) know little about the AES.

40 percent believe automated counting will lead to clean polls

Two in five Filipinos (40 percent) think the automatic counting of votes will result in clean elections with credible results.

Less than one of five (16 percent) hold the opposite view while 43 percent profess indecision regarding automation’s possible effect on the forthcoming elections.

Big pluralities to small majorities (47 percent to 54 percent) of those in Western Visayas and Mindanao, particularly Regions 9, 11, 12, and the ARMM, believe that the outcome of next year’s elections will be credible due to the automation of vote counting.

Meanwhile, the prevailing public sentiment in Metro Manila, Central Visayas, Region 10 and Caraga, and Classes ABC and D is one of indecision (44 percent to 52 percent).

In the rest of Luzon and Eastern Visayas, nearly the same percentages of respondents are either ambivalent on the matter or believe that automation of vote counting will make election results credible for the citizenry (40 percent to 49 percent versus 35 percent to 46 percent).

On the other hand, a near majority of those in Class E (47 percent) is optimistic that the automation of vote counting will contribute to the credibility of election results.

52 percent say religious endorsement a boost

Some 52 percent of Filipinos will “surely/probably” vote for a presidential candidate endorsed by their church, the survey showed.

But 43 percent of Filipinos are surely/probably not voting for a presidential candidate endorsed by their church.

The survey was conducted October 22 to 30, using face-to-face interviews with 1,800 representative adults 18 years old and above.

Pulse Asia said its nationwide survey has a +/- 2 percentage error margin at the 95 percent confidence level, error margins of +/- 6 percent for Metro Manila, +/-4 percent for the rest of Luzon and +/-5 percent for each of Visayas and Mindanao, at 95 percent confidence level.

At the time the survey was made, developments dominating the news headlines were: the formal declaration of former President Joseph Estrada of his bid for the presidency in 2010 and questions about its legality; Senator Lorna Regina Legarda’s declaration of her plans for the May 2010 elections and Interior Secretary Ronaldo Puno’s withdrawal from the vice-presidential race; Senator Francis Escudero’s departure from the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC); the search for a running mate by presidential bets Gilberto Teodoro Jr. and Senator Manuel Villar Jr.; late registrants catching the last days of registration for the May 2010 elections; the resignation of Public Works Secretary Hermogenes Ebdane Jr.; relief efforts in the aftermath of typhoons “Ondoy” and “Pepeng”; and the freeze on oil prices and other energy products, as well as basic commodities, imposed by the government. - LBG/KBK GMANews.TV